European PV market conditions in the first quarter of 2022
2022-05-20 09:00The Intersolar Europe 2022 international solar energy exhibition recently opened in Munich, Germany, and the European photovoltaic market continues to be hot. According to PV InfoLink's statistics on China's customs export data, from January to March 2022, China exported 9.6, 14.0, and 13.6 GW of PV modules, totaling 37.2 GW of PV modules to the world, an increase of 112% compared to the same period last year, and every month It has almost doubled. In addition to the continuing wave of the energy transition, key markets growing in the first quarter of 2022 include Europe, which must accelerate the replacement of traditional energy sources amid the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and India, which began imposing Basic Customs Duty (BCD) tariffs in April this year.
Europe, which has been the largest market for Chinese module exports in the past, imported 16.7GW of Chinese module products in the first quarter of this year, an increase of 145% compared with 6.8GW in the same period last year, the highest year-on-year growth rate. Europe itself is the most active market for energy transformation, and the recent energy crisis in Europe caused by the Ukraine-Russia conflict has greatly affected European energy policies. In order to accelerate the elimination of dependence on Russia's oil and gas, countries have begun to plan to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy. Among them, the fastest progress is represented by Germany, a major energy-consuming country. Germany has advanced the schedule of fully using renewable energy to 2035, which will greatly stimulate the demand for photovoltaic products this year and in the future.
Data from the European Photovoltaic Association showed that in 2021, Europe added 25.9GW of new photovoltaic installed capacity, a year-on-year increase of 34%; combined with export data, we expect that Europe's new photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to exceed 40GW in 2022, a year-on-year increase of more than 54%. Driven by the European market, we estimate that the global installed PV capacity is expected to reach 230GW, an increase of more than 30% year-on-year, and the pace of demand is expected to improve quarter by quarter.
The high demand for renewable energy in Europe has also made the rise in module prices more acceptable. At present, the European module price has reached the level of US$0.27-0.285 per watt, and even US$0.29 per watt has been heard. Therefore, in the first quarter when supply chain prices continued to rise, Europe's demand for photovoltaic products continued to grow month by month. Markets that have imported more than GW-level modules from China currently include the Netherlands, Spain, and Poland.
German renewable energy targets
The wave of energy transition and corporate social responsibility continues, and the global demand for renewable energy continues to increase, accelerating the deployment of photovoltaics. The latest estimate from PV InfoLink shows that the global non-Chinese photovoltaic module demand in 2022 will be conservative at 140-150GW, and under optimistic conditions, it can even reach more than 160GW It is expected that in 2022, the main markets for China's module exports will still be Europe which is promoting the fastest energy transition and the Asia-Pacific region, and Brazil, whose monthly export volume in the first quarter exceeded the GW level.
